Showing posts from November, 2010

Follow-Up: Estimating using PERT based on Beta Distribution Model

This is a follow-up to my previous post about “Using PERT for estimating tasks”. The idea is not to illustrate any mathematical proofs for deriving the PERT Distribution but just to give a hint on its background.

The PERT distribution is a probabilistic model, based on Beta Distribution, and it derives its estimates based on the probability of occurrence (i.e., chance or possibility - if an event is likely to happen, we say it is probable. On the other hand, if it is not likely to happen, we say it is improbable. Directly or indirectly, probability of occurrence plays a role in the all activities. Probability of occurrence of any event will be a number between 0 and 1. Events that are unlikely will have a probability near 0, and events that are likely to happen have probabilities near 1).

The Beta Model is a flexible yet continuous distribution, defined on the interval (0, 1), that places value on the event itself and the interval between events. Because it accounts for a degree of ran…